Occupational Employment Projections
Occupational employment projections involves merging data from three sources - the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) national projections, and the Wisconsin four-digit NAICS industry employment for the base and projected years.
Occupational projections are developed using employment matrices; these occupations are concentrated by industry. The staffing pattern ratio, also called industry ratio, coefficient ratio, or percent of industry employment, is the proportion of industry employment accounted for by an individual occupation. A staffing pattern matrix provides staffing pattern ratios for all industries.
The OES Survey does not obtain a sample of self-employment by occupation. As a result, national ratios of self-employment to nonfarm wage and salary employment by occupation are obtained from BLS. The BLS ratios are based on data from the Current Population Survey (CPS). The national ratios are applied to Wisconsin OES data to estimate self-employment workers in Wisconsin.
BLS also provides replacement rates by occupations which are derived from the national CPS. Replacement rates are the expected rate at which job openings will emerge due to people permanently leaving a given occupation. A permanent leave occurs when a person retires, dies, or for some other reason decides to leave the occupation. In addition, BLS provides change factors which are used to estimate shifts in the distribution of employment among occupations, within each industry, over the projection period.
A base year table, called a matrix, of employment by occupation and industry is developed. The matrix is based on occupational and industry employment for the current base year. The base year matrix is then merged with the projected year industry employment projections and the BLS separation rates and change factors. The merger of this information creates the projections of occupational employment by industry.
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